When the shaking stops
What turns an earthquake into a healthcare crisis? Engineers are uncovering the hidden weak spots in urban infrastructure that could make the difference between quick recovery and chaos.
A multi-institutional team of researchers led by Luis Ceferino, assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering, simulated a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area to assess its impact on acute care hospitals and emergency healthcare access. After modeling a M7.25 earthquake on the Hayward Fault, the researchers found that regional hospital bed capacity could drop to 51%, with Alameda County retaining just 20% of its functional beds. Widespread transportation failures further restricted access, increasing travel times by 177% and exceeding 1,000% in parts of the East Bay.
According to Ceferino, failures at one facility can cascade across a region, overwhelming hospitals, increasing travel distances and worsening health outcomes. Collapsed bridges and other road hazards can further isolate hospitals and communities.
“Our findings underscore the need for a system-level approach to infrastructure resilience planning,” said Ceferino. “One that prioritizes interdependencies and regional importance rather than treating assets, like bridges, in isolation.”
Learn more: How a major Bay Area earthquake could endanger healthcare access; Accessing acute care hospitals in the San Francisco Bay Area after a major Hayward earthquake (Nature Communications)